More than 31,000 daily cases were recorded on 24th February in Malaysia, the highest since the pandemic started. The number is expected to be higher with many more unreported cases, and delays in reporting went unaccounted. However, another lockdown is unlikely to happen based on the current situation. While Malaysia is experiencing another spike in daily cases due to Omicron for the past couple of weeks, observers closely monitor the impact on Malaysia’s economy, including how the government will respond.
Reactions by other countries to the situation in Malaysia are concerning too. Many countries have categorised Malaysia as COVID-19 high-risk country. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has recently issued a Level 4 travel warning for Malaysia, thus discouraging its citizens from travelling to the country. Travel advisories and restrictions imposed on Malaysia are risking business recovery here. The tourism industry is expected to be the most impacted, although Malaysia has partially opened its border for limited travel bubbles apart for essential travels (i.e., work, study, and family).
How are the people holding up?
Locally, although jitters can still be felt, the fear is lesser then before as the people had endured three earlier waves from different variants. This situation can be observed as the public is not deterred from going out to work and leisure – despite the atmosphere still pales compared to pre-COVID. Many employers, both in public and private sectors, are improvising existing Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) and their ways of doing business to ensure continuous operation and minimise disruptions. The authority’s enforcement of SOPs is also lax now, providing more flexibility to adjust accordingly through self-disciplines.
The success of the vaccination program, which is proven by the significant drop in the mortality rate and the numbers of patients admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) compared to the previous waves, has also helped to ease the public to some extent. As of 23rd February, the Ministry of Health (MOH) reported that almost 79% of the total population (aged five and above) had completed vaccination. Exercises for booster shot is also currently being carried out actively. Furthermore, from about 278,000 active cases reported, 96% of the patients are recovering from home, primarily asymptomatic or only having light symptoms. Only 4% are being admitted to the hospital and quarantine centres, and a mere 0.1% are being treated in the ICU. Additionally, the death rate stands at 11 deaths per 1 million people based on data for the past two weeks.
Despite the promising outcome of the vaccination program, the government is in no hurry to enter the endemic phase under the National Recovery Plan. This decision will likely depend on the stress test of the healthcare system. At the time of writing, the healthcare utilisation rate is still ample at 36% for ventilators, 60% for ICUs, 72% for hospital beds, and 42% for quarantine centres. Nonetheless, it is still early to tell whether the healthcare system could cope in the long run as the wave is relatively at its early stage – and more daily cases are expected until it reaches its peak within weeks.
Will there be another Lockdown 4.0?
Lockdown might save many from the virus, but at the cost of their jobs and livelihood. As more people are starting to accept that they must get used to living with COVID-19, experts are also telling the cost-benefits of lockdowns can no longer be justified. Official statistics show the unemployment rate has risen to 4.5% in 2020, or an almost 40% increase from the previous year, mainly due to lockdowns. More than 100,000 people had lost their jobs in the same year, with the semi-skilled and skilled workers being the most impacted. Worst, the measure is futile as the number of cases rises again after the lockdown is lifted.
As a resident, though, I observed that the public is less gruelling than before, providing space for the government to act more rationally under less pressure from extreme public scrutiny. Having endured enough, series and prolonged lockdowns are no longer preferable nor affordable for society. Hence, I opined that the Malaysian government is unlikely to move in that direction, considering the GDP has contracted by -5.6% in 2020 and the missed GDP target in the 2021 Budget. Therefore, the prevailing weightage is to make up for the deficits and get back on track for economic recovery – fearing a sustained economic fallout if they fail.
The recent relaxation on the quarantine rules for close contacts who are already boosted is a good sign that the government is committed to its recovery plan. Low-Risk Treatment Centre is also being reopened as a preemptive measure to avoid overwhelming hospitals, hence avoiding another lockdown.
Although signs of recovery have already been observed since the second quarter of 2021, the subsequent quarterly trend indicates that the recovery is bumpy. Hence, the government needs to be extra vigilant not to let Omicron derail the economic recovery process by resorting to extreme measures. Otherwise, Malaysia will risk repeating missing its GDP target of 5.5% – 6.5% in the 2022 Budget, which is already a mounting task to achieve even before Omicron. As more countries are abolishing COVID-19 restrictions and starting to live normally, Malaysia too should look forward to getting back to normalcy and regaining its economic momentum. Past experiences and countries benchmarking are valuable learning points to do better this time.
In conclusion, although Omicron is spreading wildly in Malaysia, the government might not enforce another lockdown to stay focused on its economic recovery plan. This is because the success of the vaccination program has significantly reduced the health risk and considering the dire need to get people back on their feet.
