By W.T.R.
Background
South China Sea is a strategic area and rich in natural resources. Conflicts between countries involved in mutual ownership claims over territory in the region have been going on for approximately 5 decades. The potential wealth of the South China Sea is enormous, apart from having large reserves of Natural Resources, China has projections for the development of a new silk road vision or known as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Along with the change in world geopolitics to the Indo-Pacific region, the South China Sea conflict has become one of the main issues of international politics because it causes conflicts that lead to security instability in the Indo-Pacific region. We can see this nature from the formation of the AUKUS, trilateral defense pact between Australia, Britain and the US. PRC’s aggressiveness in the SCS region both in territorial claims in the SCS and the PRC’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) vision is a threat to the US as a superpower that also has strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific region, this contest creates conflicts of interest in both the political and economic fields between the US and PRC is getting more intense.
The meeting in San Diego on Monday 13 March 2023 by the President of the United States Joe Biden with Australian Prime Minister Anhony Albanese and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced the results of their discussion to the public regarding plans to supply nuclear-powered submarines to Australia. This effort plan is a joint commitment to the trilateral relations of the United States, Britain and Australia towards conflicts that occur in the Indo-Pacific region to promote efforts for a free and open Indo-Pacific region.
This integrated trilateral relationship through AUKUS received responses from various countries, especially the PRC as opposition to the conflicts that occurred in the Indo-Pacific. China said that what was done by AUKUS certainly violated the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty which made conflicts in the Indo-Pacific region heat up after the meeting and cooperation were carried out. PRC Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning responded that they urged the United States, Britain and Australia through AUKAS to end efforts such as the Cold War and respect international obligations by maintaining regional stability, especially in the Indo-Pacific region.
In the geopolitical context of the Indo-Pacific region, although Australia, the UK and the US in their official statements are committed to maintaining security stability and peace in the Indo-Pacific region, the development of nuclear-powered submarine technology carried out by Australia, the UK and the US through a defense pact trilateral AUKUS on the contrary has the potential to become a threat to security stability and peace in the Indo-Pacific region. Australia’s ownership of nuclear submarines supported by the US and Britain (the US’s old ally) is a form of balancing US power against the PRC. The balance of power is the US political response to the PRC which is carried out by arming Australia, which in this case is geographically located in the Indo-Pacific region and close to the South China Sea region.
Although the AUKUS trilateral defense pact is basically intended as a counterbalance to China’s military power by the US in order to create security stability and peace in the Indo-Pacific region, the pact, on the contrary, can lead to potential conflict escalation in the Indo-Pacific region because of the commitments of Australia, Britain and the US to maintain security stability and peace in the Indo-Pacific region by using weapons technology development instruments is an ancient concept that was commonly used during the cold war era through an arms race that was commonly carried out by the US and the Soviet Union and their proxy countries.
Indonesia’s Position
Indonesia’s position as a country that is close to Australia and involved in the NPT certainly can see this as a threat to world peace in the Indo-Pacific region. The potential for Indonesia’s cooperation with AUKAS or China needs to be studied seriously because it could lead to further involvement in conflicts in the Indo-Pacific region in efforts for world peace or protection of the sovereign territory of the Republic of Indonesia. More than that, the attitude that will be taken by Indonesia regarding the conditions that occur in the Indo-Pacific region will be a significant determinant of Indonesia’s face in the world regarding world peace efforts and Indonesia’s strong position as a non-aligned country.
Indonesia as a non-aligned country has shown its neutrality in front of the world by making peace efforts and countries in the region have also responded to what happened. Indonesia through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs urged Australia to remain committed to its responsibility in the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons in the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and the International Atomic Energy Agency Safeguards. Glance at what is stated in the statutes of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) which stands in the legal framework for fulfilling its obligations by countries that are in the NPT agreement and agreements regarding nuclear weapons free zones.
There are only 5 countries that have permits for possession of nuclear weapons, namely France, China, Russia, Britain and the United States while Australia is not one of them. Where the agreement only allows the five countries which are the UN Security Council to have nuclear weapons, even though it is permitted to allow the possession of nuclear weapons, the five countries are not allowed to transfer nuclear weapons technology or nuclear warheads to other countries. Even non-Nuclear Weapon State (non-NWS) countries are also not allowed to develop nuclear weapons.
In addition, the presence of nuclear-powered submarines in Australia will have a negative impact on ASEAN security stability which has previously been a disputed area with the PRC, because these submarines have the potential to pass through ASEAN territorial waters, where this would violate the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon Free Zone (SEA) treaty. SEANWFZ) which was agreed upon by ASEAN countries on December 15, 1995 as a commitment to preserve the Southeast Asian region as a nuclear-free and other weapons of mass destruction area to realize international peace and security.
WayForward
As a large country in the region, Indonesia’s geographical location certainly puts Indonesia in the middle of a potential vortex of conflict between AUKUS and PRC. Based on these conditions, it is important for Indonesia to determine its policy direction in response to the AUKUS trilateral defense pact agreement and its relationship with the PRC-ASEAN conflict in the SCS.
If we look back on the SCS conflict between ASEAN countries and China, we can see that there is no shared attitude from ASEAN as a region, but each country is based on their respective national interests. Therefore, Indonesia needs to have its own attitude in responding to the situation in the Indo-Pacific region based on the principle of free and active foreign policy that has so far been adhered to by Indonesia.
In relation to the principle of free and active foreign policy, Indonesia must still have an attitude that is in accordance with these principles but oriented towards national interests. Indonesia’s position as involved in the SCS conflict and in the midst of a vortex of tension and the potential for military conflict between AUKUS and the PRC makes it impossible for Indonesia to avoid the impact that tensions between the two parties can have in the future. Therefore, the Indonesian government should not be neutral, but should be careful in making foreign policies that can certainly benefit Indonesia.
From a profit perspective, Indonesia’s proximity to AUKUS countries in the military field will benefit Indonesia in modernizing the TNI’s main defense equipment. Proximity to AUKUS is not a signal that Indonesia does not have the principle of free and active, but can be interpreted as a political attitude oriented towards national interests in the field of defense, not as partiality to one party.
Furthermore, Indonesia’s closeness with AUKUS in the field of defense can go hand in hand with the closeness between Indonesia and China in the economic field which continues to this day, so that in the future Indonesia will remain in a favorable bargaining position to carry out economic cooperation, given economic growth and development. become one of the main programs of President Joko Widodo’s administration.
Thus, in this conflict, Indonesia can take advantage of the two sides that are currently arguing in the field of defense and the economy as well. This is in accordance with the main principle of a free and active foreign policy. In doing so, the Government of Indonesia needs to take diplomatic steps by carrying out intense communication and embracing parties who are in the vortex of the conflict, both AUKUS, PRC and ASEAN while maintaining stability, security and peace in the Indo-Pacific region and a commitment to implementing the NPT as a main narrative. This is important in policy making by the Government of Indonesia in the future, so that even though in this case the main objectives of Indonesia’s foreign policy are oriented towards national interests.
As the host of ASEAN 2023, Indonesia can take advantage of this momentum to raise joint commitments from ASEAN countries regarding preventing potential conflicts in the Indo-Pacific region by pressing AUKUS to stop its nuclear development in Australia while continuing to support AUKUS’ presence in the Indo-Pacific region. The Pacific as a balancing power against China’s aggressiveness in the region.