By JT
Indonesia’s Parliament approved the capital city bill on January 18, 2022, which allows the relocation of its capital from Java to East Kalimantan. The new capital has been named ‘Nusantara’ and the relocation is expected to be realised by 2045. The military and strategic ramifications this will bring to Malaysia will be enormous as the Indonesian National Armed Forces (TNI), the navy, and the air force will move their headquarters and supporting units along with this shift to Kalimantan on Borneo island. The estimated number of military personnel that will be deployed to Nusantara is around 30,000-50,000. Indonesia is also looking at establishing new marine units, marine forces, ports, airfields, and naval bases in the new capital. Besides, Indonesia also has a USD 125 billion military modernisation plan entitled ‘Fulfilling the Defence and Security Equipment Needs of the Ministry of Defence and Indonesian Armed Forces (TNI) 2020-24’, especially focusing on the navy due to the geopolitical developments in the South China Sea and the Sino-American great power competition in the region.
This raises questions on security dilemmas in neighbouring states, especially in Brunei and East Malaysia which are located on the same island of Borneo. Last year marked the 55th anniversary of the signing of the peace treaty that signified the end of the Indonesia-Malaysian Confrontation from 1963 to 1966, which mostly took place in the border areas between Indonesia and East Malaysia. The conflict stemmed from Indonesia’s opposition to the formation of the Federation of Malaysia, which eventually merged the Federation of Malaya, Singapore, as well as British colonies in North Borneo (Sabah) and Sarawak on 16 September 1963. Furthermore, there is an existing land boundary dispute between both countries over the eastern part of Sebatik Island, along with the maritime boundary disputes over the overlapping exclusive economic zone (EEZ) claims in the northern part of the Straits of Malacca and a maritime area in the Sulawesi Sea, known as the Ambalat sea block.
Malaysia and Indonesia share land borders on Sebatik Island off the coast of Sabah and North Kalimantan, which experienced fighting during the Indonesia-Malaysian Confrontation. The Ambalat disputes have also led to a military stand-off in 2005, in which both nations sent warships and aircraft to defend their sovereignty claims. In order to protect the new capital from maritime threats, heightened border patrols will most likely be carried out by the Indonesian Navy and coast guards. Nonetheless, both Sebatik Island and Ambalat are located in the vicinity of Nusantara, and the increasing presence of Indonesia’s navy and coast guards around the disputed maritime areas might become a security concern for Malaysia. The ongoing bilateral border negotiations between Malaysia and Indonesia are especially crucial, which Indonesia aims to conclude this year.
Other than security concerns, the relocation will also have economic impacts on Malaysia’s ports along the Straits of Malacca. East Kalimantan is located at the heart of the Makassar Strait. The Lombok-Makassar Straits are regarded as the most suitable for the very large and ultra-large crude carriers (VLCCs and ULCCs) due to the under-keel clearance of 3.5 metres and the 23-metre depth in the Straits of Malacca. Therefore, they could be an alternative to the Straits of Malacca and once the relocation is materialised, competition between the Lombok-Makassar Straits and the Straits of Malacca will be greater due to the close vicinity of the Makassar Strait to the new economic and political centre of Indonesia. Under the ‘Global Maritime Fulcrum’ vision of President Joko Widodo, maritime connectivity in Kalimantan will be enhanced with infrastructure developments, such as the Trans-Kalimantan Highway, which constitutes a part of the Trans-Borneo Highway linking the highway networks in East Malaysia and Brunei, along with the Trans-Kalimantan Railway. Although these infrastructures will take some time to build and the superiority of the Straits of Malacca as a vital sea lane of communication (SLOC) will unlikely be challenged in the near future, Malaysia still needs to consider the challenges and competition the Lombok-Makassar Straits will bring to the Straits of Malacca once the relocation has been realised.
The shift of Indonesia’s capital to Nusantara will definitely have profound strategic, economic, security, and geopolitical implications for Southeast Asia and the wider region. Apart from the security dilemma and the competition with the Straits of Malacca, the relocation will have economic spillover effects on Malaysia too, especially in the East Malaysia region. Job opportunities will increase for the local communities, and there will also be increasing digital, infrastructure, and people-to-people connectivity across Borneo that will enhance the Malaysia-Indonesia bilateral trade and economic ties. The proximity of Sabah and Sarawak to Nusantara will bring significant economic opportunities for Malaysia which should not be missed. Thus, careful consideration and planning are required now in Malaysia to reap the most out of Indonesia’s capital relocation while being prepared for the security and strategic challenges it will bring to Malaysia’s maritime domain.
